Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 12.553798 14.380281 16.350041 18.628548 21.187766 23.969619 27.218440
2025-03-30 10.029570 12.534397 15.446022 19.065421 23.427651 28.498355 34.820517
2025-04-06 8.508061 11.252112 14.599730 18.956086 24.443971 31.093741 39.723327
2025-04-13 6.971812 9.721548 13.230151 17.992453 24.238329 32.095568 42.663837
2025-04-20 6.318697 9.207564 13.033210 18.408407 25.692836 35.137722 48.210880
2025-04-27 5.761187 8.743124 12.828934 18.753183 27.022902 38.040109 53.684587
2025-05-04 5.155301 8.133718 12.349375 18.646564 27.684749 40.034455 57.992310
2025-05-11 4.595077 7.525525 11.804015 18.378255 28.064871 41.618533 61.768297
2025-05-18 4.193567 7.110680 11.493923 18.406683 28.839543 43.756146 66.381335
2025-05-25 3.888991 6.813010 11.326448 18.618988 29.872210 46.284914 71.641139
2025-06-01 3.568289 6.455797 11.032317 18.603872 30.542704 48.293666 76.207417
2025-06-08 3.251095 6.072081 10.661030 18.431045 30.943120 49.896529 80.215032
2025-06-15 3.026813 5.831333 10.510262 18.611923 31.924409 52.453374 85.831765
2025-06-22 2.899120 5.747788 10.612248 19.209629 33.599424 56.152154 93.365719
2025-06-29 2.651939 5.423375 10.276129 19.043492 34.009325 57.872363 97.867939
2025-07-06 2.306047 4.880908 9.515948 18.094508 33.056009 57.363041 98.797877
2025-07-13 2.200051 4.784467 9.538900 18.505936 34.408431 60.621662 105.893251
2025-07-20 2.093367 4.675937 9.529665 18.854701 35.663929 63.765343 112.916351
2025-07-27 1.935028 4.447936 9.279756 18.746748 36.108814 65.569258 117.787686
2025-08-03 1.771236 4.192138 8.956173 18.477427 36.244827 66.845917 121.812618
2025-08-10 1.656707 4.028899 8.798233 18.505894 36.911954 69.047978 127.475958
2025-08-17 1.571543 3.920846 8.740301 18.719258 37.922793 71.878546 134.312885
2025-08-24 1.469067 3.764147 8.571851 18.704058 38.502953 73.969499 139.936377